Power&PolicyDaily Briefing
All briefings
The story so far

Global Bond Sell-Off 2026

How this story has unfolded — scroll the timeline to follow the arc, with the key briefings woven in along the way.

Central banksMarketsEnergyTradeElections
The bigger picture

Where things stand

  1. Sell-off ignites

    A combination of oil-driven inflation fears and broad investor retreat from government debt pushed UK swap rates, the rates mortgage lenders use to price fixed deals, to a three-year high, showing how quickly a global bond sell-off lands on household finances. The transmission was textbook: bond prices fall, yields rise, swap rates follow, and millions of homeowners facing renewal get a higher monthly bill.

  2. Briefing · SEPT 04Global bond sell-off pushes UK mortgage rates toward a three-year highThree-year high UK swap rates (mortgage pricing benchmark)Read the full story →
  3. Briefing · SEPT 05Global bond markets stay fractious as Trump links military power to US debt76,515points Sensex close (Sep 4)Read the full story →
  4. Briefing · SEPT 05Strong US August jobs report shifts focus back to inflation — and Fed timingAugust 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report periodRead the full story →
  5. Briefing · SEPT 06Foreign investors pull ₹7,443 crore from Indian equities in the first week of September₹7,443 crore FPI equity outflows from India, first week of SeptemberRead the full story →
  6. Briefing · SEPT 08Japan's GDP revised higher, strengthening the case for a BOJ rate hikerevised higherQ2 2026 Japan GDP revisionRead the full story →
  7. Briefing · SEPT 11Global bond sell-off pushes US 10-year Treasury yields toward 5% as oil-driven inflation fears mount~5%% US 10-year Treasury yield (approaching)Read the full story →
  8. Briefing · SEPT 12US inflation beats forecasts in August as consumer confidence slumps — Fed rate hike looks increasingly likely0.4%MoM US CPI month-on-month change, AugustRead the full story →
  9. Briefing · SEPT 14Yuan hits multi-year high as markets position ahead of Fed and BOJ decisionsMulti-year high Chinese yuan vs USDRead the full story →
  10. Briefing · SEPT 15US 10-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2007 as Fed rate-hike bets rise~5%% US 10-year Treasury yieldRead the full story →
  11. Briefing · SEPT 16Gold holds below $4,300 and the rupee slips as markets wait on the Fedbelow $4,300 Gold price (per troy ounce)Read the full story →
  12. Fed and BOJ tighten together

    The Fed's first rate hike in three years, followed the next day by the Bank of Japan raising rates to a 31-year high, produced the most significant simultaneous tightening by two major central banks in decades, while the Bank of England held, creating a three-way split in global monetary policy. The carry trade, where investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere, came under direct threat, putting pressure on emerging-market capital flows and pushing the rupee through 96 per dollar.

  13. Briefing · SEPT 17Fed hikes rates for first time since 2023 — rupee breaks 96, RBI faces October-or-December call96INR/USD Rupee per dollar (breached in early trade)Read the full story →
  14. Briefing · SEPT 18Bank of England holds rates as UK inflation hits 3.1% — defying Fed and BoJ tightening3.1% UK CPI inflationRead the full story →
  15. Briefing · SEPT 18Bank of Japan raises rates to 31-year high as West Asia oil shock fans inflation31-year high BoJ policy rateRead the full story →
  16. Briefing · SEPT 19Japan raises rates — yet the yen weakens past 157, bond yields fall and the Nikkei gains 1.5%157+JPY/USD Yen per dollar after the rate hike — a weakening, not strengtheningRead the full story →
  17. Briefing · SEPT 23UK borrows £18.3bn in August, bond investors grow restless before October budget£18.3bn UK government borrowing, August 2026Read the full story →
  18. Briefing · SEPT 24Global bond sell-off deepens as Brent crude tops $100 and US yields hit post-tariff highs100+USD/bbl Brent crude price (USD per barrel)Read the full story →
  19. Briefing · SEPT 24France's budget crisis deepens as deficit balloons and bond investors grow nervous£6.5bnGBP/year Annual UK export loss to EU from mismatched product rules (separate but related trade story)Read the full story →
  20. Briefing · SEPT 25US mortgage rates top 7% for the first time in 20 months after Fed rate hike7.03% US 30-year mortgage rateRead the full story →
  21. Briefing · SEPT 25Japan's long-term bond yield hits a 30-year high, pulling investors back home30-year high Japan long-term bond yieldRead the full story →
  22. Briefing · SEPT 27Bank of Korea warns of 'domino price hikes' as inflation risk buildsHighqualitative BOK assessment of inflation riskRead the full story →
  23. Briefing · SEPT 29Spain's inflation hits 5%, a three-and-a-half-year high, backing the case for higher ECB rates5% Spanish CPI inflationRead the full story →
  24. Briefing · SEPT 29US bond yields at decade highs drag global stocks lower and send gold to a seven-week low5.23% US 10-year Treasury yieldRead the full story →
  25. Briefing · SEPT 30US 30-year yield pulls back from 24-year high as bond-market pressure easesHighest since 2002 30-year US Treasury yield reached before pullbackRead the full story →
  26. Briefing · OCT 01UK 30-year gilt yield hits 6%, highest since 1998, as global bond sell-off deepens6% UK 30-year gilt yieldRead the full story →
  27. Yields hit multi-decade highs

    US 10-year Treasury yields reached their highest level since 2002, UK 30-year gilts briefly crossed 6% for the first time since 1998, and the gap between French and German government borrowing costs widened to its highest since June 2012, reviving memories of the eurozone debt crisis. At 5.36% by 10 October, the US benchmark, the rate against which almost every other borrowing cost in the world is set, was pricing in a world where inflation stays high and central banks stay tight for far longer than markets had hoped.

  28. Briefing · OCT 02US borrowing costs hit 24-year high as global bond sell-off deepens and French spreads flash euro-crisis warning24-year high 10-year US Treasury yieldRead the full story →
  29. Briefing · OCT 02Bank of Japan signals faster rate rises as Tokyo inflation hits 2.7% in September2.7% Tokyo inflation, September 2026Read the full story →
  30. Briefing · OCT 03Eurozone inflation hits three-year high of 3.8%, complicating ECB rate path3.8% Eurozone inflation, three-year highRead the full story →
  31. Briefing · OCT 06Euro slides as France's debt fears spread to mortgages and bond markets1.2% Euro drop last weekRead the full story →
  32. Briefing · OCT 08Brent above $104 sends eurozone bond yields surging and French borrowing costs to new highs$104per barrel Brent crude priceRead the full story →
  33. Briefing · OCT 08Fed minutes confirm another hike is coming as US inflation expectations hit three-year high3.9% US one-year inflation expectation (NY Fed survey)Read the full story →
  34. Briefing · OCT 09NY Fed: tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to US inflation across 67 goods categories2.9pp Percentage points added to inflation by tariffs (67 goods categories)Read the full story →
  35. Briefing · OCT 09European bond yields ease as ECB repo funding comes into focus amid market turbulencehigherdirection European equity markets at openRead the full story →
  36. Briefing · OCT 10France caught between street protests and bond markets as debt crisis deepens8 Years since the gilets jaunes protests first hit FranceRead the full story →
  37. Briefing · OCT 10US ten-year Treasury yields climb to 5.36% as global borrowing costs stay elevated5.36% US 10-year Treasury yieldRead the full story →
  38. Briefing · OCT 11UN warns developing nations face triple shock from energy, El Niño and soaring borrowing costshundreds of millions People at risk of being pushed back into poverty, per UNDPRead the full story →
  39. Briefing · OCT 13IMF warns AI share crash could destabilise world financial system6.25%one-day drop South Korea Kospi index fallRead the full story →
  40. Briefing · OCT 13Fed's Hammack says higher rates may still be needed to stop inflation becoming entrenchedRead the full story →
  41. Briefing · OCT 15UK economy grows 0.1% in August, wrong-footing forecasters who called a contraction0.1% UK GDP growth in AugustRead the full story →
  42. Briefing · OCT 16US wholesale prices surge 6.3% annually in September, worst since 20226.3% US producer price inflation, year to SeptemberRead the full story →
  43. Briefing · OCT 17US fiscal deficit swells to almost $2 trillion for 2026, up 12% in one year$2 trillionUSD US federal budget deficit, fiscal 2026Read the full story →
  44. Briefing · OCT 18IMF Bangkok meeting: global economy 'defying gravity' but the IMF says do not count on it100+ Countries represented at IMF Bangkok meetingRead the full story →
  45. Briefing · OCT 20Bank of Japan set to hold rates but raise its inflation forecast at this month's meetingrecord high Demand at Japan's 20-year bond auctionRead the full story →
  46. Briefing · OCT 22UK debt tops £3 trillion as inflation hits 3.5% and budget looms£3tnGBP Total UK government debtRead the full story →
  47. Briefing · OCT 23UK consumer confidence posts sharpest drop since Brexit as Middle East war bites-24 UK GfK consumer confidence index, OctoberRead the full story →
  48. Briefing · OCT 29Fed holds rates at 3.7% inflation with December hike openly on the table3.7% US inflation rateRead the full story →
  49. Briefing · OCT 30Bank of Japan says inflation has hit 2% for the first time in 13 years, but holds rates steady2% BOJ inflation target, now confirmed as metRead the full story →
  50. Briefing · OCT 31AI spending doubts wipe nearly $1tn off US tech stocks in a week$1tn Nasdaq value lost in one weekRead the full story →
  51. Briefing · NOV 02Dallas Fed's Logan calls for at least two more rate rises, pushing Treasury yields lower2+ Further Fed rate rises Logan says are neededRead the full story →
  52. Briefing · NOV 03RBA raises rates to 4.85%, an 18-year high, as governor warns pain now beats worse pain later4.85% RBA cash rate after hikeRead the full story →
  53. Briefing · NOV 03US Treasury yields rise as midterm election results loom and a Democratic sweep threatens the dollarRising US Treasury yields on election eveRead the full story →
  54. Briefing · NOV 11US inflation beats forecasts and Fed's Waller signals December rate hike, possibly by half a point0.4% US consumer price rise in OctoberRead the full story →
  55. Briefing · NOV 12Gold falls below $4,000 as December Fed rate hike looks near-certain and Treasury yields climb$4,000 Gold price per ounce (fell below this level)Read the full story →
  56. Briefing · NOV 13UK gilts head for worst weekly drop since September as bond sell-off deepensworst weekly drop since September UK gilt performance this weekRead the full story →
  57. Pressure spreads and deepens

    A US producer price reading of 6.5% annually, hotter than expected, sent the dollar to a 19-month high and cemented bets on a larger December Fed hike, while the Bank of Japan confirmed inflation had hit its 2% target for the first time in 13 years, removing the last formal reason it had given for keeping rates near zero. The term premium, the extra return investors demand to hold long-dated debt rather than rolling over short-term bonds, is now elevated across the US, UK, eurozone and Japan simultaneously, meaning the sell-off is no longer driven by one country's story but by a repricing of the entire global cost of money.

  58. Briefing · NOV 14Dollar hits 19-month high as US PPI at 6.5% cements bets on a bigger December Fed rate hike6.5%year-on-year US PPI annual rateRead the full story →
  59. Briefing · NOV 15Yen hits 160 per dollar as intervention warnings mount and traders tread carefully160JPY/USD Yen per US dollar (approximate level reached)Read the full story →
  60. Where things stand now

    The US 10-year yield is near 5.36%, UK 30-year gilts are around 6%, French sovereign spreads are at euro-crisis-era levels, and the yen is trading near 160 per dollar with intervention warnings mounting. The Fed has hiked once and signalled December as live; the BOJ has confirmed its inflation target is met but held rates; the Bank of England is holding while its own gilt market sells off around it. US mortgage rates are above 7%, UK five-year fixes are at 6%, and the rupee has been through 96 per dollar. The UN has warned that developing nations face a triple shock from energy costs, El Niño and surging borrowing costs, and the IMF has flagged AI valuations as a separate systemic risk sitting on top of all of this.

    What’s at stake nextThe December Fed meeting is the next hard decision point. If the Fed hikes by 50 basis points (half a percentage point), the dollar strengthens further, the rupee and other emerging-market currencies come under fresh pressure, and the BOJ faces a harder choice about whether to let the yen weaken past 160 or spend foreign reserves intervening. If France's political deadlock produces no credible budget, the spread over German bonds could widen toward the levels that forced ECB emergency action in 2012, testing whether the ECB's current tools are enough to hold the eurozone together. And if the BOJ signals faster rate rises at its next meeting, the unwinding of the yen carry trade, where trillions of borrowed yen sit in foreign assets, could be the disorderly shock that turns a bond sell-off into something closer to a financial crisis.