Israel–Iran Conflict & Ceasefire
How this story has unfolded — scroll the timeline to follow the arc, with the key briefings woven in along the way.
Where things stand
- Ceasefire shatters
Iran and Israel exchanged direct strikes for the first time since an April ceasefire, instantly repricing global risk: oil's geopolitical risk premium widened, European and Asian equities sold off sharply, and South Korea's KOSPI — a bellwether for semiconductor supply chains — led regional declines. The episode exposed the limits of US diplomatic leverage, with President Trump unable to restrain Prime Minister Netanyahu, and revived fears of a broader regional war centred on the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes.
- Briefing · JUN 08Global markets slide as Middle East conflict and tech sell-off collide8% KOSPI index declineRead the full story →
- Briefing · JUN 08Israel and Iran exchange strikes, shattering April ceasefire14people People killed in Israeli strikes across Gaza on SundayRead the full story →
- Briefing · JUN 09Iran and Israel Pause Strikes, but Warn Ceasefire Is on a Knife-Edge14fatalities People killed by Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon amid the flare-upRead the full story →
- US enters the war
The conflict crossed a qualitative threshold when President Trump ordered strikes on Iran after Tehran shot down a US Army Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps retaliated within hours against US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, drawing three American allies directly into the fighting. This shift from proxy skirmishing to direct US–Iran military exchange represented the most serious Gulf security rupture in decades, spiking shipping-insurance premiums, disrupting civil aviation and forcing regional governments to publicly choose sides.
- Briefing · JUN 10Iran's FIFA World Cup fans reportedly lose US-issued tickets amid conflictRead the full story →
- Briefing · JUN 10US strikes Iran; Tehran fires back across the Gulf in rapid escalation1 US Army Apache helicopter downed near Strait of HormuzRead the full story →
- Briefing · JUN 11US and Iran Trade Strikes for Second Day as Ceasefire Teeters104days Days of war (Iran conflict)Read the full story →
- Economic damage confirmed
The conflict's macroeconomic toll became measurable: the UK's GDP contracted 0.1% in April — the first hard national-accounts evidence of war-driven damage in a G7 economy — as services firms cited elevated energy costs and uncertainty, creating a classic stagflationary dilemma for the Bank of England. Simultaneously, India's wholesale inflation surged to 9.68% in May under a revamped WPI series, driven by fuel costs from the Strait of Hormuz closure, limiting the RBI's room to cut rates even as growth needed support.
- Briefing · JUN 12UK economy contracts 0.1% in April as Iran conflict weighs on growth-0.1%% UK GDP growth, April 2026 (monthly)Read the full story →
- Briefing · JUN 12Trump halts Iran strikes, signals deal — but Tehran stays silent1,695points Sensex point gain on FridayRead the full story →
- Briefing · JUN 13UK economy contracts 0.1% in April as Iran conflict weighs on growth-0.1% UK GDP change in April 2026Read the full story →
- Briefing · JUN 13US and Iran agree deal wording — Pakistan PM confirms, markets surge1,695points Sensex point gain on Iran deal newsRead the full story →
- Briefing · JUN 14Oil slides into the $80s as U.S.-Iran peace deal edges closer — but Tehran disputes Sunday timeline$80sUSD per barrel Oil price range (Brent/WTI) on ceasefire hopesRead the full story →
- Deal edges to signing
Pakistan's prime minister confirmed agreed deal wording on 13 June, triggering a global risk-on rally — India's Sensex jumped 1,695 points, Wall Street gained 0.7% — before Trump declared a Sunday signing and oil tumbled into the $80s; on 15 June the deal was announced, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen and Brent crude dropping 4% to below $84, sovereign yields in energy-importing nations easing, and the rupee surging 58 paise to ₹94.60 against the dollar.
- Briefing · JUN 15US-Iran peace deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices tumbling and markets surging4%percent Drop in Brent crude priceRead the full story →
- Briefing · JUN 15India's wholesale inflation hits 9.68% in May as war-driven oil costs bite9.68%percent India WPI wholesale inflation, May 2026 (new series)Read the full story →
- Where things stand now
A US–Iran peace deal has been announced, with the formal signing scheduled for 19 June and the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen — ending the largest energy supply disruption in market history. Oil has already repriced sharply lower, equity markets from Mumbai to London have rallied, and the immediate geopolitical risk premium has deflated. However, Iran has not publicly confirmed the Sunday timeline, the UAE's reported side-payments to Tehran remain unverified, and the underlying nuclear and regional-power disputes that triggered the conflict are unresolved.
What’s at stake nextThe critical question is whether the 19 June signing holds: if it does, a sustained fall in crude prices will compress inflation across energy-importing economies, give central banks — including the Bank of England and the RBI — more room to cut rates, and unlock a durable rally in risk assets. If Tehran walks back the deal or the signing slips, oil could spike sharply as the risk premium reasserts itself, UK and Indian inflation data confirm the damage already done is deep, and the prospect of a return to direct US–Iran hostilities would represent a systemic shock to global growth.